Job Description / Responsibility

The African Development Bank’s (Bank Group) Country Economics Department (ECCE) produces several knowledge products, including flagship reports such as the country diagnostic notes, country strategy papers, analytical papers among others. In collaboration with Sudan Country Office (COSD), ECCE is seeking the services of an international consultant to prepare a growth diagnostic study deep dive within the context of updated Country Diagnostic Notes (CDNs) for Sudan. The CDN is designed to inform the preparation of a new Country Strategy Paper (CSP) with the primary objective of identifying the binding constraints to the growth and development of a country. Findings from the CDN are used to inform the selection of the priority areas of the CSP.

Sudan was reclassified from a low-middle-income to a low-income country in 2020 following the country’s sustained decline in annual real GDP growth (from 2.9% in 2016 to -3.6% in 2020), which reduced the Growth National Income (GNI) per capita from USD 1,310 in 2016 to USD 650 in 2020. Sudan was upgraded to the low-middle income country category following the discovery of oil in 2000s, but weak economic performance in the aftermath of South Sudan's secession in 2011 led to a sharp decline in its GNI per capita. The political instability coupled with other existing and emerging economic vulnerabilities have held back the post-COVID-19 economic recovery and resulted in dire socio-economic implications, including rising poverty levels which reached 66% in 2022.

Sudan’s structural transformation has recently deteriorated from an already low level. The composition of GDP has changed over the past decades, with the share of services (retail and wholesale trade, restaurants, hotels, local transport, warehousing, communications, etc.) sector in dominance. However, the share of the agriculture sector reduced, and the manufacturing sector remained at an average of 7.7% of GDP during the period. On the demand side, private consumption, investment, net exports have declined, and government consumption has increased, albeit slightly.

The private consumption to GDP share decreased to 84.9% in 2021 from 86.0% in 2000, while the investment share increased to 16.3% from 11.5%, government consumption slightly increased to 6.2% from 5.5%, while net exports have sharply dropped to 2 -7.9% of GDP from 3.3% over the same period. South Sudan’s secession in 2011 reduced Sudan’s oil resources by 75% decreasing the share of the oil sector in GDP from 14% in 2010 to an average of 4% since 2012 and increasing the average annual trade deficit to USD 4 billion since the secession. However, the spatial structure of output generation has remained unbalanced as the growth poles are still heavily concentrated in urban areas due to limited progress made toward diversifying economic opportunities across the country, which explains the persistent regional inequalities, weak institutional capacity, and weak governance, amongst others.

This deep dive will undertake a systematic diagnostic analysis of Sudan’s growth process over the last 30 years to identify the sources of growth and articulate what needs to be done in the medium term to promote sustainable and inclusive growth and transformation. The study will involve diagnostics of the long-term growth trends, a synthesis of enablers of growth, the binding constraints to growth and emerging challenges.

Objective of the Assignment

The main objective of this intervention is to undertake a diagnostic study and facilitate expert discussions on sources and constraints of growth in Sudan for accelerated, sustainable, and inclusive growth and transformation. The proposed comprehensive, futuristic, and multi-sector study will inform the Government of Sudan, and its development partners as to how development partners could work closely with the Government to help Sudan achieve its development aspirations, in the context of the Bank’s High 5’s vision for Africa’s economic transformation, the Government’s development priorities and those of other development partners. Among others, the study will also develop a roadmap to guide the government in implementing the recommendations.

The specific tasks to be undertaken in this assignment include:

Undertake a systematic diagnostic analysis of Sudan’s growth and structural transformation process over the last 30 years, and what needs to be done in the medium term to promote inclusive growth. The assignment will involve a synthesis of key issues in economic growth, inclusivity, and social development as well as the binding constraints to future growth. Specifically, the work will involve synthesis of i) trends in economic growth and structural transformation; ii) Growth decomposition and sources/drivers of growth; iii) private sector growth and emerging issues; etc.

Examine the relationships between economic growth and trends in poverty and inequality, human capital development, economic and social governance, and labor-market dynamics, including trends in employment and skills mismatch; identify the key drivers and enablers of growth and the binding constraints to inform policy options over the medium-to-long term.

Propose a new growth model/strategy that Sudan needs to take to absorb new labour market entrants; identify the impact of improving the quality of human capital, innovation and higher value-added production in existing and new tradable sectors and integration into regional and global value chains. Analysis of the structural shifts of economic growth and employment in Sudan, comparing the GDP growth rates and the employment/unemployment over the last two decades. Identify the potential sources of jobs at a sector level, and what needs to be done to catalyze job creation in those sectors. The model will help to identify new sources of growth and growth potential; the priority areas for public investment and corresponding policy options with the largest potential for promoting inclusive growth, reducing poverty, income inequality and expanding job creation; how to sustain ongoing reforms to develop a level playing field; and quantify the impact of unlocking the constraints to growth/ economic diversification/ transformation.

Quantitative assessments and simulation experiments of the proposed growth model will be undertaken to examine the impacts of the proposed growth strategies on Sudan’s capacity to promote inclusion, transformation and absorb new entrants in the labour market and sustainably reduce unemployment.

Simulations of the proposed growth model and strategies to show how it translates growth into employment generation and poverty reduction, and application of relevant frameworks such as the overlapping generations (OLG) framework to capture the potential interaction of different generations of individuals in the marketplace. The simulations will also help to identify interlinkages of policy options and to recommend their sequencing and prioritization.

Scope of Work

The analysis for the proposed study will focus on the drivers/sources of growth in Sudan and identify binding constraints to growth over the last three decades. The consultant will undertake a deep dive analysis and prepare a report of not more than 40 pages (excluding preliminary pages, references, and annexes) that seeks to investigate the sources of growth in Sudan (supply side and demand side). More specifically, the Consultant will prepare a report on the growth accounting/diagnosis in line with the proposed outline in Section VIII.

The analysis will involve a review of available studies as well as other literature and additional data to describe Sudan’s long-term growth trends and transformation; private sector contribution; human capital development; economic and social governance; and employment trends and skills match.

The analysis will draw on the national and sectoral development strategies such as the 25-year strategy is broken down into medium-term plans, including the Economic Reform Program (ERP) 2015-2019; the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) 2021-2023 and other strategies documents to examine the implications of policy measures on inclusive growth and identify areas for reforms. In addition, the consultant will propose a new growth model or strategies and use a variety of data (on growth, employment, and poverty levels, etc.).

S/he will also run simulations of the proposed growth model and strategies to show how it translates growth into employment generation and poverty reduction. The consultant will apply relevant frameworks such as the overlapping generations (OLG) framework to capture the potential interaction of different generations of individuals in the marketplace. The simulations will also help to identify interlinkages of policy options and to recommend their sequencing and prioritization.

Educational Requirements

At least a Master’s Degree or its equivalent in a relevant field including Economics, Public Finance, Public Policy or related disciplines, and any other relevant field, with expertise in macroeconomic modelling, macroeconomic policy analysis, inflation and exchange rate analyses, and macroeconomic policy reforms.

Ph.D. is an added advantage.

Experience Requirements

At least 10 years of relevant professional and practical quantitative and qualitative research experience and report writing on policymaking in the industrial sector and on international trade issues.

At least 3 years of experience working for an international organization. Experience with the African Development Bank will be an added advantage.

Specific experience in relevant areas that include macroeconomics, monetary policy, inflation, and exchange rate analyses.

Experience working with the public sector, particularly in macroeconomic management and policy analysis, including in Sudan.

Experience with preparing policy analysis and policy briefs, economic research and macroeconomic modelling.

Additional Job Requirements

Excellent report-writing skills.

Ability to think critically and analyze complex issues.

Ability to undertake rigorous statistical analyses, and competency in the use of standard software (Word, Excel, Access, PowerPoint, and web tools).

Proven capacity to work in a team or independently, and to deliver outputs in a timely manner.

Experience working in a multicultural environment, personal sensitivity and commitment to Bank Group values and ethics; and

English and French are the main languages of the Bank. For this assignment, English is required.

Reporting Requirements:

The successful consultant will work under the overall guidance of the Director for the Country Economics Department and direct supervision of the Lead Economist covering the Regional Department for East Africa. The Consultant will also work closely with the Country Economists covering Sudan and with other staff of the African Development Bank. To the extent needed, the Consultant may be in contact with other stakeholders working in the same or related areas, using interactive video or audio conferences. No travel is expected.